Numbers tell the story..
Investors are eyeing exits, not entries.
New survey data is telling us one thing: more Kiwi property investors are looking to cash out than buy in.
Economic commentator Tony Alexander’s latest survey of property investors offers some eyebrow-raising stats: a whopping 35% of current investors are thinking about selling in the next 12 months, while only 21% are looking to buy. That’s a net buying intention of -14%.
Why this matters
More sellers than buyers = more listings = prices staying flat (or softer) through mid-2025. Basic supply and demand at work.
But this negative trend isn’t new. In fact, more investors have expressed a desire to sell for the past two years. You’ve got to go back as far as March 2023 for a positive reading (21% buying vs. 20% selling). Back then, the market gained some upward momentum as first-home buyers jumped in and investors looked to take advantage of the uptick in prices.
New blood vs. old guard
Alexander’s survey only tracks existing investors. Meanwhile, other analysts are spotting fresh faces entering the game, with real estate agents reporting a net 12% increase in new investor activity.
So, what’s really happening? Is it a changing of the guard?
- Established investors: Taking profits and restructuring portfolios
- New investors: Hunting for entry points in a buyer’s market
The result? More “For Sale” signs popping up across the country over the next few months, keeping a lid on any runaway price growth until at least mid-year.
Picture clears
By June-July, we’ll have much clearer visibility on some major market forces:
- Annual net migration will bottom out
- The likely impact of global trade tensions on inflation will be evident
- NZ’s monetary policy easing cycle will end
- The labour market is likely to show green shoots
Our take: Once these factors play out, we could see a shift in momentum that pulls hesitant buyers off the sidelines.
The domino effect in action
One unexpected casualty of the current buyer’s market is retirement village operators.
They’re reporting lower-than-expected inflows because potential residents don’t feel they can get top dollar for their existing homes. That “acceptable price” benchmark isn’t being met, so seniors are staying put.
For operators banking on unit sales, 2025 is shaping up to be a challenging year. The power dynamic isn’t likely to shift back to sellers before year-end, keeping this segment under pressure.
The bottom line
We’re firmly in a buyer’s market with a projected listing surge coming. Smart investors are watching for that mid-year inflection point when multiple economic factors could finally align to shift momentum.
Until then? It’s a game of patience and position-taking. The opportunities are there for cash-ready buyers willing to negotiate hard.
Want more unfiltered insights on Kiwi property investing? Call 0800 GOODWINS for a chat.
